Copper prices climbed to a fresh record on October 29, 2025, breaching $11,140 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange as supply disruptions and improving risk sentiment tightened the market. The rally followed weeks of outages at major operations, including a deadly mud slide at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine that curtailed output, alongside weaker production guidance from several large Latin American producers. Traders also cited optimism around easing US–China trade tensions ahead of high‑level talks this week, which bolstered expectations for manufacturing and power‑grid spending that are copper‑intensive. Intraday, the LME three‑month contract topped the prior all‑time high set in May 2024 before paring some gains later in the session. Analysts said speculative inflows have amplified moves amid historically low exchange inventories and tight concentrate availability feeding smelters. Demand from electrification end‑markets—EVs, data centers and transmission upgrades—remains a key support, while US policy signals and tariffs have encouraged pre‑buying and stockpiling by downstream users. Some banks warned volatility could remain elevated if macro conditions shift or if mine restarts accelerate. Still, the immediate balance is seen tight into 2026 given delays to new projects and lingering weather and operational risks at existing assets. The new peak underscores how quickly the market’s focus has swung from macro growth worries to supply scarcity as the year closes.

European Commission officials are reviewing Anglo American’s proposed $500 million divestment of Brazilian nickel assets to Hong Kong‑listed MMG, with remedies under discussion after concerns that the deal could constrain supply for European customers. According to people familiar with the process on October 29, 2025, one remedy floated involved Anglo committing to buy ferronickel from MMG for resale in Europe over a 10‑year period, but regulators have yet to seek market feedback and the adequacy of proposals remains uncertain. The preliminary review is expected to conclude by November 4. The transaction forms part of Anglo’s portfolio streamlining amid a re‑rating of base‑metals businesses, while MMG seeks to expand in battery metals. The EU’s scrutiny comes against a backdrop of heightened sensitivity to supply concentration and China‑linked ownership in critical minerals. Any conditions could shape how much material is ultimately available to EU stainless steel and alloy producers, many of whom faced tight feedstock earlier this year due to mine disruptions and lower concentrate availability. Both companies said they remain engaged with regulators to ensure competition is preserved and European buyers have continuity of supply. A protracted review could delay closing and create near‑term uncertainty in regional procurement plans for nickel units used in stainless steel and battery supply chains.

Iron ore prices advanced on October 29, 2025, after China proposed tougher rules to restrain steelmaking capacity, a move viewed as supportive for mill margins and raw‑material demand near term. The most‑traded January contract on Dalian rose about 1.35% to 788 yuan/t ($110.63), while November Singapore futures edged up to $105.75/t during Asian trading. Sentiment improved as higher finished‑steel prices created buying headroom for mills to replenish ore inventories, according to market commentary. Last week, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a draft “capacity swap” framework that would forbid adding or transferring capacity in key smog‑control regions and require at least 1.5 tonnes of old capacity to be retired for each new tonne installed—tighter than previous rules paused in 2024. Analysts said the policy aims to stabilize utilization rates, reduce overcapacity and encourage cleaner electric‑arc furnace production over time. While the measures are structural, near‑term pricing was also aided by restocking after the holiday period and expectations for additional macro support to manufacturing. Iron ore benchmarks remain sensitive to any follow‑through on production curbs in northern hubs and to evolving US–China trade dynamics. Market participants will watch for implementation details and mill compliance, which historically has varied by region and season.

On October 30, 2025, copper prices were reported to have surged to an all‑time high of $11,200 per metric ton on October 29, driven by renewed concerns over mine supply and optimism around a potential U.S.–China trade deal. Copper is up more than 27% in 2025, with the rally also supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower interest rates. The latest leg higher followed production updates from major miners: Glencore and Anglo American reported lower copper output for the first nine months of 2025 and cut full‑year guidance, intensifying supply concerns. While the price spike reflects tight supply, several analysts flagged risks to sustainability due to limited evidence of robust end‑user demand growth. The International Copper Study Group projects a refined copper market deficit of about 150,000 tons in 2026. Some banks and brokers nevertheless expect looser balances beyond next year: Panmure Liberum’s Tom Price said current bullish factors appear largely priced in and forecast a small surplus in 2026, while WisdomTree’s Nitesh Shah warned speculative enthusiasm could fade. Goldman Sachs forecasts copper trading in a $10,000–$11,000/t range in 2026–2027 on expectations of a likely surplus, though it maintains a constructive longer‑term view. The latest move extends a year of sharp volatility in base metals as markets react to shifting macro and supply signals.

Baoshan Iron & Steel (Baosteel), China’s largest listed steelmaker and a unit of China Baowu, reported on October 30, 2025 that third‑quarter net profit rose to 3.08 billion yuan (about $432 million), up 130% from 1.34 billion yuan a year earlier, citing stronger domestic demand and continued resilience in export orders. The company said demand from high‑end manufacturing and new‑energy sectors supported results despite ongoing industry challenges such as high costs and persistent oversupply. For January–September 2025, Baosteel’s net profit increased 35.32% year on year to 7.96 billion yuan. Operationally, Baosteel produced 12.77 million tons of pig iron and 13.06 million tons of steel in the third quarter, bringing nine‑month totals to 36.48 million tons and 38.79 million tons, respectively. Export activity remained firm: Baosteel captured 5.17 million tons of export orders in the first three quarters, up 10.9% from the prior year, and the company is targeting 15 million tons of exports in 2026. Management nonetheless noted that the sector faces pressure from elevated input costs and the need for structural upgrades. The update underscores contrasting themes in global steel: strong Chinese export pipelines amid trade frictions and selective domestic demand recovery. Figures were disclosed in Baosteel’s quarterly communication released Thursday.