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Copper hits $11,200/t record as supply worries persist; analysts caution rally may cool

On October 30, 2025, copper prices were reported to have surged to an all‑time high of $11,200 per metric ton on October 29, driven by renewed concerns over mine supply and optimism around a potential U.S.–China trade deal. Copper is up more than 27% in 2025, with the rally also supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower interest rates. The latest leg higher followed production updates from major miners: Glencore and Anglo American reported lower copper output for the first nine months of 2025 and cut full‑year guidance, intensifying supply concerns. While the price spike reflects tight supply, several analysts flagged risks to sustainability due to limited evidence of robust end‑user demand growth. The International Copper Study Group projects a refined copper market deficit of about 150,000 tons in 2026. Some banks and brokers nevertheless expect looser balances beyond next year: Panmure Liberum’s Tom Price said current bullish factors appear largely priced in and forecast a small surplus in 2026, while WisdomTree’s Nitesh Shah warned speculative enthusiasm could fade. Goldman Sachs forecasts copper trading in a $10,000–$11,000/t range in 2026–2027 on expectations of a likely surplus, though it maintains a constructive longer‑term view. The latest move extends a year of sharp volatility in base metals as markets react to shifting macro and supply signals.

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