The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) has projected a nickel surplus of 109,000 tonnes in 2024. The firm says in a statement that the nickel market faced surpluses of 98,000 tonnes in 2022 and 163,000 tonnes in 2023.
According to the firm, world primary nickel production was 3.06 million tonnes in 2022 and 3.36 million tonnes in 2023. It is forecast to reach 3.55 million tonnes in 2024. The estimates, however, do not include an adjustment factor for possible production disruptions.
Meanwhile, world primary nickel usage was 2.96 million tonnes in 2022 and 3.19 million tonnes in 2023. The INSG forecasts an increase to 3.45 million tonnes in 2024.
According to the firm, the rate of growth of nickel use in batteries for electric vehicles (EV) has been less than anticipated. This is negatively affected by the removal of subsidies, competition from non-nickel batteries (mainly lithium iron phosphate), and a recent relative preference for plug-in hybrid EVs over battery EVs.
In Indonesia, it is expected that different types of nickel product will continue to ramp up production, including nickel pig iron (NPI), mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) from high pressure acid leaching (HPAL) plants, nickel matte converted from NPI, nickel cathode, and nickel sulphate.
In China, NPI production is likely to decrease in 2024, but nickel cathode and nickel sulphate production is projected to increase, resulting in an overall rise in output.
Elsewhere, due to profitability issues, a number of producing facilities have been mothballed, reduced production, or are contemplating the future possibility of one of these options.
