Investment funds have boosted bullish positions in nickel despite the metal trading around five‑year lows near $15,000 per metric ton. Positioning on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has climbed steadily since April 2025 and is now at its highest level since the March 2022 market suspension, according to market data. The increased optimism comes even as the market remains in oversupply following a surge in production from Indonesia. LME on‑warrant nickel inventories have risen to 308,000 tons, with a growing share comprising Chinese‑refined nickel produced from Indonesian ore. Indonesia now accounts for about 69% of global nickel output after expanding production by 21% in the first half of 2025 versus a year earlier. Market participants are monitoring Jakarta’s regulatory steps—tighter permitting and a move back to annual production quotas—that could slow supply growth. While most non‑Indonesian operations have reduced output, expectations for policy‑driven constraints have encouraged speculative bets that prices are near a cyclical trough. The market’s current dynamics follow two years of elevated volatility, including the 2022 LME disruption, and continue to feature record exchange stocks alongside rising investor interest. Futures prices remain under pressure from abundant supply, but funds’ positioning suggests an expectation that any additional downside will be limited and that a gradual recovery could begin if Indonesian volumes moderate or if demand from stainless steel and battery sectors firms into late 2025.