China's lithium carbonate market is expected to experience a supply shortage in April, driven by booming downstream production.
China's production of LFP (lithium iron phosphate) and ternary cathode materials is projected to rise 25.47% and 2.61% month-on-month respectively, reaching 200,500 tonnes and 55,400 tonnes in April. The LFP sector is likely to see stronger growth, fueled by increasing demand, especially from the energy storage market. Additionally, some newly commissioned LFP producers are expected to start delivering orders.
On the supply side, domestic lithium carbonate production is estimated to jump 15.60% month-on-month to 51,500 tonnes in April. This increase is attributed to smelters in Jiangxi Province resuming normal production after the impact of environmental protection measures fades, as well as the commissioning of new spodumene-based production lines in the province, adding 4,850 tonnes to the province's lithium carbonate output. The production growth of spodumene and lepidolite-based lithium carbonate is estimated at 3,050 tonnes and 2,400 tonnes, respectively.
However, smelters held a total of 17,540 tonnes of lithium carbonate inventory as of the end of March, with fewer available for the spot market. Additionally, lithium carbonate imports from Chile are projected to remain flat compared to February.
Combining these factors, China's total lithium carbonate supply is likely to reach 66,000 tonnes in April, leading to a supply shortage of around 4,700 tonnes.
