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China’s August exports slow; iron ore imports stay high ahead of peak steel season

China’s export growth eased to 4.4% year on year in August 2025, the slowest in six months, while imports rose 1.3%, both missing forecasts. Customs data showed weaker U.S.-bound shipments as tariff risks persisted, but exports to Southeast Asia rose 22.5%. Analysts noted softer imports of industrial metals, reflecting continued weakness in China’s construction sector. Despite this, iron ore imports remained high as mills stocked up for the September peak demand period, when weather typically supports construction and steel usage. China’s trade surplus reached $102.3 billion in August, up from $98.24 billion in July. The export slowdown followed the August 11 U.S.–China tariff truce extension for 90 days, which kept existing duties in place but left broader policy uncertainty. Economists said the government appears reluctant to deploy large near‑term fiscal stimulus, instead relying on manufacturers to diversify export markets and on targeted credit support to hold growth “around 5%” for 2025. Market participants said energy cargoes helped lift imports, while lower chip and industrial metal inflows pointed to weak domestic investment. Officials hope robust September steel demand will help draw down high raw-material inventories amassed over the summer.

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