Goldman Sachs reports that global copper markets are tightening outside the US, driven by a sharp increase in American stockpiling amid fears of impending tariffs. US buyers have imported roughly 400,000 tonnes of copper so far this year, pushing domestic inventories to more than 100 days of consumption, compared to just 33 days in January. This aggressive buying has distorted market dynamics, despite a global surplus.
The surge has created a rare price disparity between exchanges. On June 26, copper closed at $9,669 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME), while the Comex equivalent stood at $11,177/t. Goldman Sachs attributes the gap to regional imbalances and growing uncertainty around US trade policy.
In response, the investment bank has raised its H2 2025 copper price forecast to $9,890/t, up from $9,140/t, with a projected peak of $10,050/t in August. The forecast reflects an anticipated 25% US import tariff, expected to take effect by September, and continued robust demand in China.
The market reaction follows a Section 232 investigation launched by President Donald Trump, which aims to determine whether copper imports pose a national security risk—likely paving the way for formal trade restrictions later this year.
