While weak demand persists worldwide, "China's aggressive exports" are putting pressure on the global long steel market. The market is perceived as unstable and challenging, with uncertainty looming, particularly beyond July, according to the International Rebar Exporters and Producers Association (Irepas) in its April Short Range Outlook.
The global market anticipates positive signals from financial authorities overall, as customers in the US, EU, and Canada are postponing projects as they await easing interest rates, Kallanish notes.
China ramped up its exports in the first two months of 2024, surpassing its own record exports seen in 2015. Chinese steel producers are believed to be profitable, benefiting from reduced iron ore and coke prices, as well as lower energy costs within China, according to Irepas.
Notably, China's long steel exports continued to trail behind the country's exports of flats.
Turkey's Ministry of Commerce has imposed restrictions on exports of 54 product groups to Israel, including steel reinforcing bars and wire rods. Israel stands as one of the primary markets for Turkish exports within these product categories.
Following Turkey's local elections at the end of March, there is anticipation of an economic slowdown in the country. The Turkish government aims to stabilize the value of the Turkish lira, which could be a disadvantage for Turkish steel mills in terms of their competitiveness.
In Europe, demand remains subdued, especially in Germany, where prices for reinforcing bars and wire rods are exceptionally low. The market saw a brief improvement at the end of 2023 but is not expected to recover until the second half of the year. Cut and bend prices are currently below replacement costs, and it may take several months for spreads to normalize.
Meanwhile, US steel output decreased by 600,000 tonnes in January-March compared to the same period in 2023.
