The US steel industry is bracing for a significant supply chain challenge following President Trump’s July 12 announcement of potential 30% tariffs on all European imports, effective August 1. With the Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden among key suppliers of prime scrap, electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmakers may struggle to source clean iron metallics. The proposed tariff compounds concerns already stirred by an earlier threat of a 50% levy on Brazilian pig iron—Brazil being the source of nearly 70% of US pig iron shipments since 2024.

European prime scrap has played a growing role in US imports, accounting for 28% of total volume through May, with shipments surging 94% year-on-year to 222,000 metric tons. Steelmakers have managed smaller impacts from reciprocal tariffs implemented in April but warn that elevated rates may severely restrict future inflows.

Seaborne scrap cargoes from Canada (31%) and Mexico (28%) could serve as partial substitutes. However, steel and auto tariffs have slowed busheling generation, and Mexico’s industrial growth remains fragile. The UK—at 13% of imports—lacks the capacity to fully offset the potential drop in European supply due to regional competition and limited production. Mills may soon face tough choices in reconfiguring their metallic sourcing strategies.