The Red Sea disruption has had a significant impact on Middle Eastern ammonia exports in the first quarter of 2024. These exports are set to decrease by 6% due to various factors such as plant outages, reduced demand in India, and shipping challenges west of Suez. However, there is optimism for an increase in exports in the second quarter as plants recover and Indian demand strengthens. Middle Eastern exports for this quarter are anticipated to be slightly above 1 million tonnes, marking a 12% rise compared to the previous year but a decline from the last quarter. Plant maintenance in Saudi Arabia and Oman has influenced output, with plans to enhance April exports by 40,000-50,000 tonnes compared to the monthly average of January-March. Deliveries to Morocco have been hindered by the risky Red Sea route, resulting in longer transit times and higher costs. Furthermore, shipments east of Suez are predicted to drop by 9% in January-March due to decreased demand, particularly from India. This reduced demand has impacted pricing discussions and constrained any upward pressure on Middle East ammonia prices