Julian Verden, managing director for Europe at Stemcor, expects European coil prices to recover in the second half of 2025, even as the market faces heightened volatility and global price swings. Speaking at EUROMETAL’s 75th Anniversary conference, he pointed to strong trade protection measures as a key support factor.
Verden criticized the current regulatory environment, describing it as heavily influenced by government intervention. He noted that safeguard mechanisms and the upcoming CBAM rules are creating uncertainty, especially due to the lack of real-time customs data. These measures, while designed to protect European industry, are also increasing financial burdens and stifling investment.
He anticipates a surge in hedging activity across steel, freight, iron ore, and carbon credits as companies try to manage risk. Verden also highlighted China’s growing steel exports—expected to exceed 120 million tonnes in 2025—as a major disruptor of global pricing. Meanwhile, India is emerging as a new production hub, with plans to double capacity despite raw material constraints.
