1. Global HRC Market Dynamics
Global Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) markets show divergent regional trends. The U.S. Midwest faces price volatility from weak spot demand, while China contends with oversupply and increasing trade barriers. This fragmentation exists despite a projected CAGR for the global HRC market (2025–2030) driven by construction and infrastructure.
2. U.S. Midwest HRC Market Analysis
U.S. Midwest HRC prices recently declined. Fastmarkets’ FOB mill index was $868.40/short ton (May 27); Nucor’s base was $870.00/short ton. Weak spot demand is cited. Mill shutdowns anticipate rebalancing supply by September–October. Futures (e.g., June 2025 $910.00/ton, July 2025 $905.00/ton) suggest temporary weakness, with a future rebound expected.
3. China Domestic Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) Market Analysis
China’s HRC market is stabilizing after a decline, with spot prices rebounding. Persistent oversupply fueled aggressive exports (up 22.7% in 2024, 6.3% in Q1 2025). However, increasing international anti-dumping measures and U.S. duties are expected to curb Q2 2025 exports. China is implementing domestic capacity cuts (50 million tons in 2025) to address oversupply, impacting global supply.
4. Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) Price Table (Up-to-Date)
|
Product |
Term |
Price (USD/ton) |
Date |
|---|---|---|---|
|
U.S. Midwest HRC |
FOB Mill |
$868.40 |
May 27 |
|
FOB Mill (Nucor base) |
$870.00 |
May 27 |
|
|
Ex-work |
$952.00 |
Apr 11–25 |
|
|
China Domestic HRC |
FOB China |
$446.50 |
Jun 1 |
|
FOB Tianjin (Spot) |
$462.00 |
May 23 |
|
|
CFR Saudi Arabia (Offers) |
$525.00 – $530.00 |
May |
|
|
CFR UAE (Offers) |
$480.00 – $500.00 |
May |
|
|
CIF Vietnam (Offers) |
$468.00 – $471.00 |
May |
|
|
Ex-work Shanghai |
~$444.00 |
May |
|
|
Ex-work Shanghai (Spot Range) |
$471.00 – $490.00 |
Apr |
5. Key Outlook
A notable price disparity exists: U.S. HRC is higher due to tariffs. Both markets face volatility from localized imbalances and trade tensions. The U.S. anticipates stabilization; China adjusts to export resistance and domestic cuts. Despite short-term turbulence, the global HRC market’s underlying demand from construction and infrastructure indicates a positive long-term trajectory.
