Goldman Sachs has revised its iron ore price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024, reducing it by $15 to $85 per tonne. This adjustment is attributed to market oversupply and stabilizing demand from China, the largest consumer of iron ore.
Despite a recent uptick in iron ore futures driven by expectations of increased demand from China, the country's economic recovery has been slower than anticipated. Analysts suggest a potential short-term price increase due to restocking ahead of the upcoming holiday week, but overall prices are expected to decline further in October due to high inventory levels.
Key risks include a possible drop in exports linked to reduced steel production in China, which could further weaken demand for iron ore. Recent data shows that iron ore prices have already fallen significantly, with weak macroeconomic indicators in China contributing to ongoing price pressures.
