The European Steel Association (EUROFER) has significantly downgraded its projections for apparent steel consumption within the EU-27, signaling a more challenging period ahead. According to EUROFER's Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2025-2026/Q1 2025 report, apparent steel consumption in the EU-27 reached 30.4 million tons in the third quarter of 2024, marking a 0.9% year-on-year decline, following a 1.4% drop in the preceding quarter. This persistent downturn is attributed to ongoing war-related disruptions, escalating energy costs, and increasing production expenses.
Revised forecasts indicate a deeper contraction for 2024, with apparent steel consumption now expected to decline by 2.3%, a downward adjustment from the earlier 1.8% projection. Growth for 2025 is also anticipated to be weaker, at 2.2% instead of the previously estimated 3.8%. Steel-using sectors similarly experienced a 4.1% output decline in Q3 2024, leading to a projected 3.3% contraction for 2024, a steeper drop than the initial 2.7% estimate. The expected growth for these sectors in 2025 has also slowed to 0.9% from 1.6%.
EUROFER Director General Axel Eggert emphasized that the European steel industry is "structurally weakened by external factors such as large-scale dumping, uncompetitive energy and carbon prices," asserting that the industry "can no longer bear this burden". This highlights that the challenges extend beyond cyclical economic fluctuations, pointing to fundamental competitive disadvantages that persist despite monetary easing by the European Central Bank. The high level of steel imports, reaching 28% of total consumption in Q3 2024 while domestic supplies fell, further exacerbates pressure on European producers. This situation underscores the critical need for immediate policy intervention from the European Commission to stabilize the market and support the industry's future, making 2025 a pivotal year for such decisions.
