In the wake of the European Commission's proposed amendments to safeguard measures, European hot-rolled coil (HRC) buyers are anticipating a rise in offer prices. The Commission's announcement on May 30 to consider a 15% cap for single-country imports over the Tariff Rate Quota for HRC has set the stage for a potential shake-up in the market.

The proposed cap is expected to constrict HRC imports from Japan, Taiwan, and Vietnam, leading to a shift in demand dynamics. European buyers are now looking towards alternative sources, including Middle Eastern materials or increased purchases from European mills.

Market insiders predict that the impending regulatory changes will not only limit non-EU imports but also prompt European manufacturers and unaffected non-EU suppliers to hike their prices. The complexity introduced by the amended measures has raised concerns among service centers about the implementation process and the likelihood of European mills capitalizing on the situation to escalate prices.

Current import offers from Turkey are ranging between Eur590-610 per metric ton CIF Italy, while Asian offers stand at Eur610 per metric ton CIF Italy. Meanwhile, domestic prices for HRC in Northwest Europe were assessed at Eur630 per metric ton ex-works Ruhr on June 4, mirroring the previous day's figures. Tradable values are reported between Eur630-635 per metric ton ex-works Ruhr, predominantly at Eur630 per metric ton ex-works Ruhr. Offers in Northwest Europe are hovering around Eur640-660 per metric ton delivered.

In South Europe, the domestic prices for HRC remained stable at Eur625 per metric ton ex-works Italy on June 4. Tradable values are estimated at Eur620-630 per metric ton ex-works Italy, with offers noted at Eur650 per metric ton delivered Italy. The market awaits the European authorities' definitive decision on the safeguard measures, expected by June 30, which will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the HRC trade landscape.