After more than a month of steady declines, European coil prices are expected to stabilize by mid-to-late July. Market participants cite the upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) as a key factor, with importers becoming cautious about placing new orders that may arrive after the October 1 deadline.
The recent price drop has been driven largely by domestic mills attempting to stay competitive with low-priced imports. However, as the window for placing overseas orders narrows, traders are becoming more reserved to avoid excess inventory at year-end.
Japanese-origin coil has gained popularity due to the yen’s depreciation, with hot-rolled coil offered around €530 per tonne FCA Antwerp. Indonesian material, exempt from EU safeguards, is also gaining traction, with prices as low as €480–490 per tonne in Italy.
Domestic HRC prices remain below €600 per tonne, typically in the €570–590 range. Cold-rolled coil and galvanized products continue to carry premiums of €80 and €100 per tonne, respectively, due to higher energy costs.
