Chinese steel exports are projected to hit an eight-year high in 2024, potentially exceeding 100 million tons, according to the Financial Times. This surge is attributed to a significant decline in domestic demand, prompting manufacturers to increase exports primarily to Southeast Asia and Europe.
The influx of Chinese steel into global markets is driving prices down, raising concerns among other countries that may retaliate with protective measures against local industries. Ian Roper, a commodities strategist, anticipates an uptick in trade cases against China, which could lead to higher tariffs on its steel products.
Despite the falling domestic demand, steel producers in China are reluctant to cut production, resulting in oversupply. The China Metallurgical Association has urged manufacturers to cease aggressive competition and avoid price wars. Additionally, shipments of hot-rolled steel to Europe are expected to rise, despite existing tariffs of at least 18.1%.
The Baowu Steel Group has warned of a severe crisis in the steel sector, with losses reported by Chinese metallurgical plants. As of July 2024, steel exports from China increased by 21.8% compared to the previous year, reaching 61.23 million tons.
