China's steel industry is facing a significant downturn as steel production declines amid overcapacity issues and falling prices. The country's steel production dropped by 1.4% year-over-year in January-May 2024, with leading steel provinces like Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong, Liaoning, and Shanxi recording declines ranging from 3% to 13%.
The decline in steel production is attributed to several factors, including increased inventories at Chinese steel mills, sluggish domestic demand, particularly from the real estate sector, and declining profit margins due to lower steel prices. Benchmarked HRC prices in Tangshan fell by 7% and rebar by 6% in January-May 2024.
Global steel production also began declining in April 2024, with a 5% decrease compared to the same period in 2023 and a 3.4% decrease compared to March 2024. China, which accounts for 55% of global steel production, saw a 3% decline in the first four months of 2024.
The overcapacity issue in China's steel industry is a significant concern, with experts predicting that 3 to 5 million individuals could face unemployment in the near future. China's steel industry, once the world's leading producer and exporter, is at a crossroads, grappling with overcapacity, falling prices, and a construction downturn.
To address these challenges, China's National Development and Reform Commission announced its intention to regulate crude steel production for the fourth consecutive year, emphasizing energy efficiency and carbon reduction. However, smaller mills are likely to resume operations as soon as they see a profitable opportunity.
As China's steel industry navigates these challenges, maintaining a balance between supply and demand, fostering high-quality growth, and adapting to changing market conditions will be crucial for its future success.
