China’s steel exports are projected to reach a record 115–120 million metric tons in 2025, up 4%–9% from last year, even as trading partners deploy more protectionist measures. Since 2024, 54 new tariffs have been initiated against Chinese steel, prompting exporters to redirect sales to markets in the Middle East, Central Asia and North Africa while shipments to Vietnam and South Korea have declined amid anti‑dumping actions. To navigate tighter barriers, Chinese mills have increased shipments of semi‑finished, lower‑value products such as steel billet, which in many jurisdictions face fewer or lower duties than finished products. This product shift has lifted export volumes but reduced average dollar values, and it is drawing scrutiny in Beijing, where policymakers are considering higher taxes on low‑value steel exports to discourage the trend. Analysts cited in the report expect exports to peak this year and moderate in 2026 as protectionism intensifies and destination markets become saturated. The surge is largely driven by weak domestic demand following the prolonged property downturn post‑2020, incentivizing mills to accelerate overseas sales before further restrictions take effect. Despite the growing headwinds, China is set to retain its position as the dominant global exporter of steel in 2025.