China’s steel exports are forecast to reach an all‑time high this year, with analysts expecting shipments of 115–120 million metric tons in 2025, up 4–9% from 2024. The push comes amid weakening domestic demand and a proliferation of trade barriers; 54 new measures against Chinese steel have been initiated since 2024. Export flows are shifting toward markets with fewer restrictions: in the first seven months of 2025, China’s exports to Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and Thailand rose 24%, 14% and 13% year on year, respectively. By contrast, shipments to Vietnam and South Korea fell 20% and 10% as anti‑dumping actions took effect. Product mix is also changing. Exports of semi‑finished billet in January–July were about three times higher than a year earlier, while rebar shipments rose 77%. Higher‑value hot‑rolled thin strip fell 23%, reflecting greater tariff exposure. In value terms, exports rose 10% by volume in January–August but declined 1% in dollar terms. Beijing is weighing higher export taxes on lower‑value products to discourage semis shipments. Despite intensifying protectionism, China’s 2025 export volume would still exceed the annual crude steel output of any country except India.