Canada must invest CAD 65 billion ($48 billion) in its critical minerals sector by 2040 to meet growing domestic and global demand, according to a new report from the Canadian Climate Institute. The study recommends the development of over 30 new mines targeting copper, nickel, lithium, graphite, cobalt, and rare earth elements. While CAD 30 billion would suffice to satisfy domestic needs, additional investment is necessary to capitalize on export opportunities.

Failing to scale up mining activity could cost the domestic industry up to CAD 12 billion, the report warns. Despite the strong long-term potential, investor confidence has been dampened by price instability. The institute suggests the government mitigate investment risks through mechanisms such as equity stakes, offtake agreements, and contracts for difference.

Rick Smith, the institute’s president, emphasized the urgency of adopting enabling policies to attract private capital while upholding environmental safeguards and respecting Indigenous partnerships. Canada ranks among the top global producers of cobalt, nickel, lithium, and graphite, yet it lags in copper output and has yet to commercialize rare earth mining. As China continues to dominate the global supply chain, Canada’s ability to scale production quickly will be pivotal in shaping its role in the clean energy transition.