Global aluminium prices rose on September 16, 2025 amid a tightening supply backdrop and the impact of U.S. import tariffs, which have driven the U.S. Midwest premium up 177% to above $0.70 per pound, its highest level in more than a decade. The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium benchmark has gained about 17% since April. Analysts attribute the rally to constrained smelting capacity growth worldwide, Chinese caps on new capacity, and ongoing energy-cost pressures that have shuttered or curtailed plants in Europe. Inventories on both the LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange are reported near multi‑year lows, underscoring physical tightness. Market participants also flagged concentration risks on the exchange, with one trader said to control over 90% of available LME aluminium, further exacerbating tightness. In trade flows, Russian metal—previously avoided by some buyers—has been redirected to meet demand in China, while some U.S. buyers are turning to untariffed scrap imports to mitigate higher costs. Several analysts now see potential for LME aluminium to approach $3,000 per tonne by late 2026 if supply additions lag demand recovery in transport, packaging and energy-transition applications. The price dynamics suggest downstream manufacturers face continued cost pressures into 2026 unless fresh capacity, particularly outside China, comes onstream or energy prices ease sufficiently to enable restarts of idled smelters.
