Seaborne iron ore prices reached a standstill on Monday as the steel market experienced a slight recovery, yet steel mills find themselves once again grappling with the challenge of ramping up production. The Kallanish KORE 62% Fe index and the KORE 65% Fe index saw marginal increases of $0.12/t and $0.16/t respectively on Monday, reaching $109.5/dry metric tonne cfr Qingdao and $121.85/dmt cfr. Additionally, the KORE 58% Fe index climbed by $0.44/t to $98.31/dmt cfr, with reports indicating the sale of 80,000 tonnes of Mac Fines at $107.3/t with a laycan of 11-20 April.
On the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), the most-traded May 2024 iron ore contract rose by CNY 6.5/t ($0.9/t) to CNY 846/t ($117.31/t). Meanwhile, on the Singapore Exchange, April 62% Fe futures and 65% Fe futures settled $0.42/t and $0.47/t higher respectively at $108.56/t and $120.93/t. The same contract for 58% Fe futures increased by $0.5/t to $98/t.
While scrap prices saw gains, billet prices experienced a retreat. Notably, 6mm+ heavy scrap delivered to mills in the Yangtze River Delta rose by CNY 19/t to CNY 2,701/t, whereas Tangshan billet dropped by CNY 10/t to CNY 3,400/t.
Following a recent market collapse and subsequent production restrictions, sentiment has slightly improved as demand picks up heading into April and supply constraints ease. Steel mills, post-maintenance, have capitalized on the market rebound, leading to increased profits and a drive to accelerate production resumption for enhanced sales. However, the risk of resuming production too hastily looms, potentially triggering oversupply and reverting the market back into a state of panic. Chinese steel mills are thus confronted with the challenge of balancing short-term gains with the long-term issue of market oversupply. Consequently, iron ore prices have stagnated, awaiting a new market trend to emerge. Fitch Ratings has revised its iron ore price forecast for 2024 upwards to $105/tonne, reflecting operational challenges at major producers that hinder their ability to meet production targets due to underinvestment since 2020, thereby constraining supply.
