Iron ore prices advanced on October 29, 2025, after China proposed tougher rules to restrain steelmaking capacity, a move viewed as supportive for mill margins and raw‑material demand near term. The most‑traded January contract on Dalian rose about 1.35% to 788 yuan/t ($110.63), while November Singapore futures edged up to $105.75/t during Asian trading. Sentiment improved as higher finished‑steel prices created buying headroom for mills to replenish ore inventories, according to market commentary. Last week, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a draft “capacity swap” framework that would forbid adding or transferring capacity in key smog‑control regions and require at least 1.5 tonnes of old capacity to be retired for each new tonne installed—tighter than previous rules paused in 2024. Analysts said the policy aims to stabilize utilization rates, reduce overcapacity and encourage cleaner electric‑arc furnace production over time. While the measures are structural, near‑term pricing was also aided by restocking after the holiday period and expectations for additional macro support to manufacturing. Iron ore benchmarks remain sensitive to any follow‑through on production curbs in northern hubs and to evolving US–China trade dynamics. Market participants will watch for implementation details and mill compliance, which historically has varied by region and season.