China’s iron ore imports have remained relatively firm above $100 per tonne this summer, even as the country’s steel sector shows increasing signs of weakness. On July 31, the benchmark Singapore iron ore contract stood at $101.71/tonne. According to Reuters, China imported approximately 592.2 million tonnes of iron ore in the first half of 2025, a 3% year-on-year decline. July arrivals are estimated at 101.3 million tonnes, reflecting continued demand despite broader market softness.

However, steel production in China has slowed significantly. Output dropped 9.2% in June to 83.18 million tonnes and was down 3% overall in the first half of 2025. This marks the weakest monthly production rate so far this year. Steel exports also showed a monthly decline, falling 8.5% in June to 9.68 million tonnes, though cumulative H1 exports were still up 9.2% at 58.15 million tonnes.

The downturn in steel output and softening domestic demand, especially within the struggling property sector, have raised concerns among analysts. Coupled with growing global tariff uncertainties, these conditions cast doubt on whether iron ore prices can remain above the $100 threshold in the coming months if downward pressure on demand continues.