Australia anticipates a significant drop in iron ore export revenues, from AUD 116 billion in 2024–25 to AUD 97 billion by 2026–27, according to the June Resources and Energy Quarterly. The forecast reflects weakening global steel demand, reduced Chinese output, and growing supply competition from Brazil and emerging African producers, particularly Guinea’s Simandou project.
The government expects the average free-on-board price for 62% Fe iron ore to decline from USD 93 per ton in 2024 to USD 74 by 2027. China, Australia’s top customer, is scaling back steel production due to slim profit margins and sluggish real estate demand. In the first five months of 2025, China’s crude steel output dipped 1% year-on-year, dampening Australia’s first-quarter iron ore exports by 1.5%.
Despite projected volume recovery to 927 million tons by 2026–27, subdued prices and a strengthening Australian dollar are set to constrain export earnings. Australia remains the world’s top exporter, supplying over half of global shipments. However, increased competition looms in the latter half of the decade. Meanwhile, iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 2.1% to USD 99.95 per ton by late June, approaching a key market threshold.
