Chinese steelmakers reduced steel production by 7% month-on-month in April 2025 to 86.02 million tons, despite volumes remaining consistent with April 2024 levels. The average daily steel production during April amounted to 2.87 million tons, down from 2.99 million tons in March.

Despite the monthly decline, China's steel output for the first four months of 2025 reached 345.35 million tons, representing a 0.4% year-on-year increase. Approximately 56% of China's steel companies operated at a profit in April, up 3 percentage points from March, attributed to stable domestic demand and high export volumes.

Meanwhile, the OECD forecasts a significant 6.7% increase in global steel capacity between 2025 and 2027, adding 165 million tons, with nearly 60% of this growth coming from Asian economies, particularly China and India. However, global demand is expected to grow by only 0.7% annually through 2030.

This capacity-demand imbalance could push capacity utilization down to 70%, putting pressure on steel producers worldwide. Steel prices have already fallen from their 2021 peak to historically low levels, though the OECD notes they appear to be bottoming out.