Italian hot rolled coil prices have remained stable in comparison to the week preceding the year-end holiday break that commenced on 21 December. Sentiment this week is defined by uncertainty, leading to a subdued market environment. The price hikes that European steel mills implemented prior to the holiday have not yet been reflected in transactions. Coil buyers and customers of service centres are currently adopting a cautious, wait-and-see approach.
Order books at coil service centres in the first week after the holiday have been disappointing. According to various sources, there have been nearly no new orders recorded this week. The current order volume is only 25-30% of what is typically expected in a normal market environment. Several companies are indicating unfavourable margins. Average domestic HRC contracts are positioned at €565-570/tonne ($582.2-587.3) base ex-works. This results in a delivered base price of €590/t.
HRC contracts have yet to exceed the threshold of €600/t in either northern or southern Europe. The market is experiencing divergence. Upstream HRC prices have risen by approximately €50/t from the low point observed in October; however, the increase in sheet values is not gaining traction. Hot rolled sheet is at €660-670/t. One source indicates that service centres are experiencing an average loss of approximately €40-50/t, which will adversely affect their financial performance if there is no improvement in prices and volumes.
Their customers are reluctant to make purchases due to persistently weak downstream consumption, and more production halts may be required. A prominent European bank’s analyst indicates steel sector fundamentals are unfavourable, with margins under pressure. Demand is not forecast to return in any of the primary end-user sectors in the near term. The white goods and automotive sectors continue to exhibit weakness, whereas the energy sector is showing marginally improved performance.
Mills' costs are substantial and they are not taking measures to reduce production. The analyst anticipates the post-Chinese New Year stimulus package could yield positive developments, along with a potential improvement in consumption as the first quarter concludes. In December, ArcelorMittal increased coil prices by €20/t in Europe. Lead times at the steelmaker’s plants in Europe are now extended to February and March.
